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We investigate the optional omission of the infinitival marker in a Swedish future tense construction. During the last two decades the frequency of omission has been rapidly increasing, and this process has received considerable attention in the literature. We test whether the knowledge which has been accumulated can yield accurate predictions of language variation and change. We extracted all occurrences of the construction from a very large collection of corpora. The dataset was automatically annotated with language-internal predictors which have previously been shown or hypothesized to affect the variation. We trained several models in order to make two kinds of predictions: whether the marker will be omitted in a specific utterance and how large the proportion of omissions will be for a given time period. For most of the approaches we tried, we were not able to achieve a better-than-baseline performance. The only exception was predicting the proportion of omissions using autoregressive integrated moving average models for one-step-ahead forecast, and in this case time was the only predictor that mattered. Our data suggest that most of the language-internal predictors do have some effect on the variation, but the effect is not strong enough to yield reliable predictions.
Studying Lexical Dynamics and Language Change via Generalized Entropies: The Problem of Sample Size
(2020)
Recently, it was demonstrated that generalized entropies of order α offer novel and important opportunities to quantify the similarity of symbol sequences where α is a free parameter. Varying this parameter makes it possible to magnify differences between different texts at specific scales of the corresponding word frequency spectrum. For the analysis of the statistical properties of natural languages, this is especially interesting, because textual data are characterized by Zipf’s law, i.e., there are very few word types that occur very often (e.g., function words expressing grammatical relationships) and many word types with a very low frequency (e.g., content words carrying most of the meaning of a sentence). Here, this approach is systematically and empirically studied by analyzing the lexical dynamics of the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel (consisting of approximately 365,000 articles and 237,000,000 words that were published between 1947 and 2017). We show that, analogous to most other measures in quantitative linguistics, similarity measures based on generalized entropies depend heavily on the sample size (i.e., text length). We argue that this makes it difficult to quantify lexical dynamics and language change and show that standard sampling approaches do not solve this problem. We discuss the consequences of the results for the statistical analysis of languages.
Studying Lexical Dynamics and Language Change via Generalized Entropies: The Problem of Sample Size
(2019)
Recently, it was demonstrated that generalized entropies of order α offer novel and important opportunities to quantify the similarity of symbol sequences where α is a free parameter. Varying this parameter makes it possible to magnify differences between different texts at specific scales of the corresponding word frequency spectrum. For the analysis of the statistical properties of natural languages, this is especially interesting, because textual data are characterized by Zipf’s law, i.e., there are very few word types that occur very often (e.g., function words expressing grammatical relationships) and many word types with a very low frequency (e.g., content words carrying most of the meaning of a sentence). Here, this approach is systematically and empirically studied by analyzing the lexical dynamics of the German weekly news magazine Der Spiegel (consisting of approximately 365,000 articles and 237,000,000 words that were published between 1947 and 2017). We show that, analogous to most other measures in quantitative linguistics, similarity measures based on generalized entropies depend heavily on the sample size (i.e., text length). We argue that this makes it difficult to quantify lexical dynamics and language change and show that standard sampling approaches do not solve this problem. We discuss the consequences of the results for the statistical analysis of languages.
Diachrone Wortschatzveränderungen werden in der Regel exemplarisch anhand bestimmter Phänomene oder Phänomenbereiche untersucht. Wir widmen uns der Frage, ob und wie Wandelprozesse auch auf globaler Ebene, also ohne sich auf bestimmte Wortschatzausschnitte festzulegen, messbar sind. Zur Untersuchung dieser Frage nutzen wir das Spiegel-Korpus, in dem alle Ausgaben der Wochenzeitschrift seit 1947 enthalten sind. Dabei gehen wir auf grundlegende Herausforderungen ein, die es dabei zu lösen gilt, wie die Verteilung sprachlicher Daten und die Folgen unterschiedlicher Subkorpusgrößen, d.h. im konkreten Fall die variierende Größe des Spiegelkorpus über die Zeit hinweg. Wir stellen ein Verfahren vor, mit dem wir in der Lage sind, flankiert von einem „Lackmustest“ zur Überprüfung der Ergebnisse, Wortschatzwandelprozesse bis auf die Mikroebene, d.h. zwischen zwei Monaten oder gar Wochen, quantitativ nachzuvollziehen.
Quantitativ ausgerichtete empirische Linguistik hat in der Regel das Ziel, grose Mengen sprachlichen Materials auf einmal in den Blick zu nehmen und durch geeignete Analysemethoden sowohl neue Phanomene zu entdecken als auch bekannte Phanomene systematischer zu erforschen. Das Ziel unseres Beitrags ist es, anhand zweier exemplarischer Forschungsfragen methodisch zu reflektieren, wo der quantitativ-empirische Ansatz fur die Analyse lexikalischer Daten wirklich so funktioniert wie erhofft und wo vielleicht sogar systembedingte Grenzen liegen. Wir greifen zu diesem Zweck zwei sehr unterschiedliche Forschungsfragen heraus: zum einen die zeitnahe Analyse von produktiven Wortschatzwandelprozessen und zum anderen die Ausgleichsbeziehung von Wortstellungsvs. Wortstrukturregularitat in den Sprachen der Welt. Diese beiden Forschungsfragen liegen auf sehr unterschiedlichen Abstraktionsebenen. Wir hoffen aber, dass wir mit ihnen in groser Bandbreite zeigen konnen, auf welchen Ebenen die quantitative Analyse lexikalischer Daten stattfinden kann. Daruber hinaus mochten wir anhand dieser sehr unterschiedlichen Analysen die Moglichkeiten und Grenzen des quantitativen Ansatzes reflektieren und damit die Interpretationskraft der Verfahren verdeutlichen.
The Google Ngram Corpora seem to offer a unique opportunity to study linguistic and cultural change in quantitative terms. To avoid breaking any copyright laws, the data sets are not accompanied by any metadata regarding the texts the corpora consist of. Some of the consequences of this strategy are analyzed in this article. I chose the example of measuring censorship in Nazi Germany, which received widespread attention and was published in a paper that accompanied the release of the Google Ngram data (Michel et al. (2010): Quantitative analysis of culture using millions of digitized books. Science, 331(6014): 176–82). I show that without proper metadata, it is unclear whether the results actually reflect any kind of censorship at all. Collectively, the findings imply that observed changes in this period of time can only be linked directly to World War II to a certain extent. Therefore, instead of speaking about general linguistic or cultural change, it seems to be preferable to explicitly restrict the results to linguistic or cultural change ‘as it is represented in the Google Ngram data’. On a more general level, the analysis demonstrates the importance of metadata, the availability of which is not just a nice add-on, but a powerful source of information for the digital humanities.
This thesis consists of the following three papers that all have been published in international peer-reviewed journals:
Chapter 3: Koplenig, Alexander (2015c). The Impact of Lacking Metadata for the Measurement of Cultural and Linguistic Change Using the Google Ngram Data Sets—Reconstructing the Composition of the German Corpus in Times of WWII. Published in: Digital Scholarship in the Humanities. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [doi:10.1093/llc/fqv037]
Chapter 4: Koplenig, Alexander (2015b). Why the quantitative analysis of dia-chronic corpora that does not consider the temporal aspect of time-series can lead to wrong conclusions. Published in: Digital Scholarship in the Humanities. Oxford: Oxford University Press. [doi:10.1093/llc/fqv030]
Chapter 5: Koplenig, Alexander (2015a). Using the parameters of the Zipf–Mandelbrot law to measure diachronic lexical, syntactical and stylistic changes – a large-scale corpus analysis. Published in: Corpus Linguistics and Linguistic Theory. Berlin/Boston: de Gruyter. [doi:10.1515/cllt-2014-0049]
Chapter 1 introduces the topic by describing and discussing several basic concepts relevant to the statistical analysis of corpus linguistic data. Chapter 2 presents a method to analyze diachronic corpus data and a summary of the three publications. Chapters 3 to 5 each represent one of the three publications. All papers are printed in this thesis with the permission of the publishers.
As a result of legal restrictions the Google Ngram Corpora datasets are a) not accompanied by any metadata regarding the texts the corpora consist of and the data are b) truncated to prevent an indirect conclusion from the n-gram to the author of the text. Some of the consequences of this strategy are discussed in this article.