TY - JOUR U1 - Zeitschriftenartikel, wissenschaftlich - begutachtet (reviewed) A1 - Berdicevskis, Aleksandrs A1 - Coussé, Evie A1 - Koplenig, Alexander A1 - Adesam, Yvonne T1 - To drop or not to drop? Predicting the omission of the infinitival marker in a Swedish future construction JF - Corpus Linguistics and Linguistic Theory N2 - We investigate the optional omission of the infinitival marker in a Swedish future tense construction. During the last two decades the frequency of omission has been rapidly increasing, and this process has received considerable attention in the literature. We test whether the knowledge which has been accumulated can yield accurate predictions of language variation and change. We extracted all occurrences of the construction from a very large collection of corpora. The dataset was automatically annotated with language-internal predictors which have previously been shown or hypothesized to affect the variation. We trained several models in order to make two kinds of predictions: whether the marker will be omitted in a specific utterance and how large the proportion of omissions will be for a given time period. For most of the approaches we tried, we were not able to achieve a better-than-baseline performance. The only exception was predicting the proportion of omissions using autoregressive integrated moving average models for one-step-ahead forecast, and in this case time was the only predictor that mattered. Our data suggest that most of the language-internal predictors do have some effect on the variation, but the effect is not strong enough to yield reliable predictions. KW - corpus KW - language change KW - language variation KW - logistic regression KW - predictive approach KW - Auslassung KW - Schwedisch KW - Futur KW - Sprachvariante KW - Sprachwandel KW - Korpus KW - Datensatz KW - Regressionsanalyse KW - Logit-Modell KW - Zeitreihenanalyse KW - Swedish KW - time-series analysis Y1 - 2024 UN - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:bsz:mh39-117371 SN - 1613-7035 SS - 1613-7035 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/cllt-2022-0101 DO - https://doi.org/10.1515/cllt-2022-0101 VL - 20 IS - 1 SP - 219 EP - 261 PB - de Gruyter CY - Berlin/Boston ER -